Randy Couture vs. Fedor Emelianenko

It’s amazing how much things can change in a year.  Just over a year ago today, Randy Couture was on top of the mixed martial-arts world, having just come out of retirement to claim the UFC Heavyweight Championship from Tim Sylvia at UFC 68.  Yet here we are today, 373 days later, and Couture is mired in a legal battle, estranged from the UFC, and has not fought since August 25^th.

The situation all stems from one thing: the possibility of a fight between Couture and Fedor Emelianenko – or lack thereof.  The will-it-happen/won’t-it-happen back and forth of this dream fight has been a recurring theme in MMA websites, publications, blogs, and forums for the last seven months now.  Recent developments have once again brought this saga to the forefront.

Rumors of a possible split between Fedor and M-1 Global have seemingly been confirmed in recent weeks.  This effectively makes Fedor a free again once again.  This was followed by an interview with Randy Couture, in which he stated that he would, in fact, be willing to return to the UFC to fight Fedor, under the stipulation that the organization re-work his contract. 

So where does this leave the possibility of the Couture-Fedor megafight?  It certainly helps, but the fight remains far from a sure thing.  On The 6^th Round’s rumor-scale, this fight currently ranks at a 5.8 (with 10 being extremely likely, and 1 being highly doubtful).

 Too Late to Kiss and Make Up?

The most glaring roadblock standing in the way of this fight happening is the strained relationships that both fighters currently have with the UFC (namely Dana White).  As mentioned before, Couture (still recognized as the organization’s heavyweight champion) is tied up in court with the UFC.  At the same time, Dana White has not missed an opportunity to badmouth Fedor Emelianenko since the supserstar signed his M-1 Global contract last October.

While this hurts the UFC’s case, it certainly doesn’t eliminate the possibility of the fight happening in the UFC.  One thing to remember is that more than anything else, these fighters want to fight the other.  Yes, Couture listed a number of grievances when he announced that he was parting (or trying to part) from the UFC, and not signing Fedor was among them. The news that Fedor has signed a contract with M-1 came down on October 10^th of 2007.  On the 11^th, Randy Couture announced his resignation.  This is proof enough that whatever problems Couture has with the UFC, he is willing to set them aside to face Fedor. 

Then there is also the battle for public perception.  Each fighter certainly wants to get his money, but they also want to save face.  What this means for Dana White is that he really only needs to come to terms with one fighter.  Hammer out a deal with Fedor, and Couture will come back.  Mend faces with Couture, and Fedor just became 10 times easier to sign.  All we have heard from Couture and Fedor in the last 7 months is how badly they want to face each other.  It would look very bad if one continued to hold out while the other is on board.

 Stay in the UFC

To this point, the entire article has focused on the fight taking place in the UFC.  Simply put, I don’t see the fight taking place anywhere else.  No other organization in America has the resources to put the fight together.  The combined purse alone would be somewhere around $4 million.  Only Mark Cuban could afford that sort of money, and he doesn’t have the infrastructure to promote the fight.  The UFC name alone will get you 350,000 Pay-Per-View buys.

There is always the option of taking the fight to Japan.  K-1’s new MMA brand Dreams would certainly have to be the front-runner for Fedor at this point.  But there is no guarantee that Dreams would even pursue the Fedor-Couture fight.  While the fight would still generate revenue, Couture is presumably not as big a name overseas as Fedor has become in America over the last few months.  Additionally, Japanese promotions have always leaned more towards pitting Fedora against the “freak-show” fighters such as Hong Man Choi or Bob Sapp.

Whether it be in America or Japan, it is hard to imagine the UFC letting this fight take place anywhere other than inside the Octagon.  They could either step up and shell out the money, or they could keep Couture tied up in court for an extended amount of time.  The UFC seems to have the upper hand in the legal battle, especially considering it was Couture that backed out of his contract.  Of course, court battles can’t go on forever, but this is a fight with an expiration date.  Randy Couture is often referred to as an ageless fighter.  He certainly has done some amazing things over 40, but we can’t forget that he is not literally ageless.  Couture will turn 45 in June.  A year lay-off is hard for any fighter to come back from, and it won’t be any easier for Couture.  If this fight doesn’t happen soon, it may never happen at all.

 What about Nog?

Lost in the shuffle seems to be the UFC’s interim heavyweight champion, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.  It appears now that Nogueira’s first title defense may be against fellow jiu-jitsu practioner and former UFC champion Frank Mir.  And while it is certainly not unprecedented for a fighter to defend an interim championship (Andre Arlovski defended his twice before being promoted to undisputed champion), it would be unprecedented for the other title-holder (in this case, Couture) to defend that belt against a different fighter.  That would be the case if Couture-Fedor were to happen in the UFC.

A unification bout between Couture and Nogueira would not be a good option for anyone.  If Couture were to lose that fight (as some predict he would), the market for a Couture-Fedor superfight would plummet.  Additionally, assuming Fedor were already under contract when the process began, it would set up Fedor-Nogueira IV in a Pride-UFC Heavyweight unification match.  Other than the absurdity of seeing Pride’s two marquee fighters in a so-called UFC vs. Pride match, it is a match-up that stirs up only luke warm interest.  Of course, Couture could win the fight against Nogueira, but as mentioned earlier, Couture’s clock is ticking.

There are two feasible options for the UFC that wouldn’t involve throwing Nogueira under the bus.  One would be to simply strip Couture of his title for inactivity.  This is a fight that sells itself, regardless of whether or not a belt is on the line.  Still, that might mean Fedor-Couture would only be a 3-round fight, something less than desirable especially when both fighters prefer a ground-and-pound approach.  Perhaps the UFC could find a loophole by making the fight for Fedor’s Pride Championship, though this doesn’t seem likely. 

The other option would be to call the match a UFC-Pride heavyweight unification bout, and save the intra-UFC unification for afterwards.  This too raises questions though, such as: how do you market a unification bout when a third viable champ exists?  And does Nogueira defend his interim title in the mean time?  There really is no perfect solution to this issue, but it is a problem the UFC would love to have.

But, this is all getting ahead of ourselves.  So many things need to happen to make this fight a reality.  A potential fight is so far down the road, it’s hard to even imagine at this point.  Of course, it’s amazing how much things can change in a year.

Tags: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Dana White, Fedor Emelianenko, MMA, PrideFC, Randy Couture, UFC